Monday, March 9, 2020

Is this an opportunity to buy oil?



It is rare to see oil price drop below $30. I would consider this a good opportunity to buy oil for long-term investment both from (1) technical, and (2) fundamental reasons.

(1) technical reason
Looking at the weekly chart, the price is potentially forming a triangle. Ideally, the price should drop below $25 and bounce back.





(2) fundamental reason
The oil price drop was caused by Saudi Arabia for a political reason. With the current price level, the majority of oil fields around the world are not profitable, therefore there will be significant decrease in production in due course. Once coronavirus issue is calm down, oil price should bounce back due to demand / supply imbalance.

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